December 29, 2016 - Canadian Environmental Agencies Publish Climate Reports

On December 29, 2016, Canadian environmental agencies published climate reports highlighting a year of significant stress on the Great Lakes basin. You'll find that summer 2016 ranked among the warmest on record, with lake surface temperatures up to 3.5°C above average. Fall warmth continued driving evaporation and shifting precipitation patterns. Ontario also proposed new carbon storage legislation linking provincial climate strategy directly to Great Lakes health. There's much more to uncover about what these findings mean for the region's future.

Key Takeaways

• Ontario proposed the Geologic Carbon Storage Act to enable carbon capture and storage, targeting high-emitting industries and linking climate strategy to Great Lakes health.
• Warmer Great Lakes surface temperatures in 2016, up to 3.5°C above average, informed Canadian climate reporting and regional environmental planning discussions.
• Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin recorded their warmest fall seasons on record, contributing to data cited in cross-border climate assessments.
• NOAA GLERL forecasted above-average winter ice coverage of 64% basin-wide, influencing Canadian agency projections for early 2017 conditions.
• Climate drivers including a weak La Niña and neutral North Atlantic Oscillation were cited in regional outlooks shaping Canadian environmental agency reports.

Great Lakes Climate Bulletin: Fall 2016 Overview

The Great Lakes basin saw temperatures well above normal during summer 2016, with the greatest departures occurring in August. Cities like Rochester, Buffalo, and Erie ranked summer 2016 among their top five warmest since the 1870s, while Ohio recorded its warmest summer minimum temperatures since 1895. Lake surface temperatures ran up to 3.5°C above average, driving significant lake evaporation as the season shifted. The 1969 Moon landing demonstrated how milestone events can reshape public consciousness, much as record-breaking climate data in 2016 reshaped regional awareness of long-term environmental shifts.

Fall warmth continued across the entire basin, with Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin recording their warmest fall seasons on record. Water levels for Lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron, and Erie all sat above average by late August. You can expect lake levels to decline seasonally as warm water evaporation intensifies alongside dropping air temperatures heading into October through December. Drought conditions that developed in eastern Great Lakes areas, particularly in New York, are expected to persist well into the October through December period. Earlier in the year, NOAA and regional partners had published a quarterly climate outlook in June 2016 noting that lake levels were at or above average entering summer, with warmer-than-average temperatures predicted for the July through September period.

Fall 2016 Precipitation Trends Across the Great Lakes Basin

Alongside the record-breaking temperatures and elevated lake levels, precipitation patterns across the Great Lakes basin told an equally complex story during the fall of 2016.

You'll notice that fall trends reveal significant precipitation variability across the region since 1951:

• Lake Superior's 10-year fall trend sits at +37.9% per decade, with a long-term rate of +4.1% per decade
• Lake Michigan-Huron maintains a long-term fall trend of +4.0% per decade
• The overall basin shows a 30-year fall trend of +4.1% per decade
• Fall remains the only season where Michigan's Upper Peninsula recorded consistent precipitation increases

These uniformly increasing fall precipitation trends across the Great Lakes region suggest a persistent shift in seasonal moisture patterns that you should expect to continue influencing lake levels and regional water management decisions. Notably, total annual precipitation across the eight U.S. Great Lakes states has risen by 14% since 1951, underscoring the broader long-term intensification of moisture across the region.

In 2024, however, a wet summer gave way to a very dry fall and widespread drought conditions, contributing to above-average declines in water levels and leaving all but one lake below its long-term monthly average by the end of November. Just as Egypt's Nile River provides essential water resources for irrigation and drinking in an otherwise arid landscape, the Great Lakes serve as an irreplaceable freshwater lifeline for millions of people across the region.

How Drought and Lake-Effect Snow Hit the Eastern Basin

While the Great Lakes basin's fall precipitation trends trended upward, the eastern basin told a starkly different story. You'd have seen record-breaking temperatures and nearly absent rainfall hammering the region throughout fall 2016, stressing crops, draining reservoirs, and slashing hydropower output at facilities like Buford Dam on Lake Lanier to below 35% of its ten-year average.

Drought recovery proved slow and uneven. Significant rains arrived in late November 2016, but February 2017's dryness stalled progress, pushing streamflows to record lows. Meanwhile, dry Canadian air masses suppressed lake effect moisture contributions during spring 2016, extending precipitation deficits further. Upper-level ridges and a stronger-than-normal Bermuda High kept low-pressure systems weak, limiting rainfall opportunities and leaving the eastern basin struggling to rebound from one of its most severe droughts since 1934. The broader consequences of this drought were documented in a comprehensive assessment funded by NIDIS, which examined agriculture, water resources, public health, and tourism impacts across the interior Southeast United States.

Conditions across Georgia and South Carolina were particularly dire, with USDA topsoil moisture reported at 97% very short to short, reflecting some of the worst drought conditions in the country and compounding the region's already severe water stress. In contrast, high-altitude water bodies like Lake Titicaca in South America, sitting at 3,812 meters above sea level, maintain cold temperatures year-round through elevation rather than precipitation variability, illustrating how geography shapes water resource stability in fundamentally different ways.

Winter 2016/17 Ice Coverage and Temperature Forecast

As winter 2016/17 set in, NOAA GLERL's forecasts called for above-average ice coverage across all five Great Lakes, with a projected maximum of 64% basin-wide against a long-term average of 55%.

These winter forecasts reflected notable ice variability among individual lakes:

• Lake Superior: 76% projected vs. 64% average
• Lake Huron: 69% projected vs. 62% average
• Lake Erie: 92% projected vs. 85% average
• Lake Ontario: 32% projected vs. 25% average

Temperature outlooks added complexity. You'd see below-normal temperatures favored in the western Great Lakes basin, while the eastern basin and entire Canadian portion trended above normal.

Warmer lake surface temperatures also raised lake-effect snow chances heading into early 2017. These forecasts were shaped by a combination of climate drivers, including a weak La Niña, neutral North Atlantic Oscillation, and weak Pacific and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation signals.

By early 2017, observed conditions began confirming some of these projections, as 2017 surpassed 2016 in Great Lakes ice coverage, with particularly notable differences across northern Lake Michigan, Green Bay, and Lake Erie.

How Ontario's New Carbon Rules Connect to Great Lakes Climate Goals

Ontario's push to enable carbon capture and storage through its proposed Geologic Carbon Storage Act signals a broader shift in how the province's climate strategy connects to Great Lakes health. By targeting high-emitting industries like cement, steel, and oil refining, Ontario's carbon capture approach reduces atmospheric warming that directly threatens lake restoration efforts.

Rising temperatures worsen algal blooms, disrupt aquatic ecosystems, and undermine the phosphorus reduction targets established under the Canada-Ontario Agreement. You can see the connection clearly: cutting industrial emissions isn't separate from protecting the Great Lakes—it's essential to it.

As Ontario stores carbon in bedrock and the federal government shifts support toward technological solutions over strict emissions caps, both strategies must align with measurable Great Lakes ecosystem health outcomes to succeed. The Great Lakes hold 20% of Earth's surface freshwater, making the alignment of climate and water protection strategies not just a policy priority but a global ecological responsibility.

Ontario Power Generation's commitment to achieve net-zero by 2040 and act as a catalyst for economy-wide decarbonization further reinforces the link between provincial energy policy and the long-term environmental health of the Great Lakes basin.

What Climate Change Means for the Great Lakes Region Long-Term

The climate shifts already reshaping the Great Lakes region aren't slowing down—they're accelerating. You're looking at serious long-term consequences affecting both economic impacts and public health.

By end of century, temperatures could rise 11°F, fundamentally altering the region you depend on.

Here's what that means:

• Fishing industries collapse as cold-water species like lake trout decline in warming waters
• Flooding costs rise with extreme precipitation events projected to intensify
• Public health deteriorates as harmful algal blooms expand and hot days exceeding 95°F surge past 200 annually
• Water supply becomes unreliable despite increased precipitation, as evaporation dries land surfaces

The economic impacts compound quickly.

Invasive species expand, lake ice disappears, and snowfall drops 30-60% by 2100. You won't recognize this region within decades. 40 million people rely on the Great Lakes for drinking water, making the stakes of these compounding changes impossible to overstate.

Ports in Buffalo, Oswego, Rochester, and Ogdensburg collectively handle over 1.1 million tons of cargo annually, and every disruption to lake levels or extreme weather events drives up transportation costs across the entire regional economy.