December 10, 2019 - Canadian Scientists Publish Global Climate Research

On December 10, 2019, Canadian scientists contributed to a landmark global climate report confirming that every major climate system — oceans, atmosphere, and cryosphere — is changing faster than projections anticipated. The findings showed 2019 ranked as the second warmest year on record, with greenhouse gases at record concentrations and sea levels rising sharply. Canada itself warmed at twice the global rate since 1948. There's much more to uncover about what these scientists found and what it means for your future.

Key Takeaways

• A major global climate report synthesizing contributions from over 520 scientists across more than 60 countries was published around this period.
• The report confirmed 2019 ranked as the second warmest year on record since 1880, approximately 1.1–1.3°C above pre-industrial baselines.
• Oceans reached record-high heat content while absorbing unprecedented CO2 levels, with sea level rising 87.6 mm above the 1993 baseline.
• Arctic systems showed accelerating change, including the lowest July sea ice volume on record and widespread Greenland surface melting.
• Greenhouse gas concentrations hit record highs, with atmospheric CO2 reaching 409.8 ppm alongside record methane and nitrous oxide levels.

What Is the State of the Climate 2019 Report?

The data reveals troubling climate feedbacks: oceans absorbed record CO2 levels while simultaneously reaching their highest heat content ever.

Sea levels climbed to 87.6 mm above the 1993 baseline, Arctic sea ice tied its second-lowest minimum, and glaciers continued retreating.

Every major climate system — atmosphere, oceans, and cryosphere — shows accelerating change that demands your immediate attention. The report draws on contributions from over 520 scientists representing more than 60 countries, synthesizing tens of thousands of measurements from land, water, ice, and space.

Long-term warming is driven by atmospheric increases in greenhouse gases, with 2019 temperatures reaching 1.1–1.3°C warmer than the late 19th century baseline across multiple major datasets. Shifting precipitation patterns and rising temperatures are also accelerating the shrinkage of endorheic basin lakes like the Great Salt Lake, which loses water solely through evaporation and has reached record-low levels.

2019 Global Temperature Trends: What the Data Shows

When you examine 2019's global temperature data, the numbers paint an unambiguous picture: it ranked as the second warmest year on record since 1880, capping the hottest five-year and hottest decade ever recorded.

NASA measured temperature anomalies at 0.98°C above the 1951–1980 mean, while NOAA recorded 0.95°C above the 20th-century average. Against pre-industrial baselines, 2019 ran 1.22°C higher than the 1880–1910 period. The Golden Ratio value of 1.618, derived from the Fibonacci sequence, has been used by artists and architects for centuries to achieve proportions considered universally harmonious—a striking contrast to the increasingly disproportionate temperature records being broken today.

The warming drivers behind these figures are well-documented. Greenhouse gas concentrations—CO2 at 409.8 ppm, alongside record methane and nitrous oxide levels—reflect sustained human emissions. Multiple independent analyses, including NASA GISS, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth, all show rapid warming in recent decades.

You can see the consequences regionally: land temperatures averaged roughly 1.5°C above baseline, the Arctic warmed three times faster than the global average, and the rate of warming has measurably accelerated. Limiting warming to 1.5°C would require halving emissions by 2030, according to an IPCC report.

Canada Is Warming Twice as Fast as the World

While the world has warmed by 0.8°C since 1880, Canada's mean annual temperature has climbed 1.7°C since 1948—more than twice the global rate. You're seeing this acceleration reshape communities from northern territories to southern cities.

Northern Canada has warmed even faster, recording a 2.3°C increase, disrupting indigenous perspectives on land, wildlife, and traditional ways of life that generations have depended upon. Caribou habitats are shifting, sea ice is vanishing, and infrastructure is buckling under unprecedented heat.

For urban populations, urban adaptation is no longer optional—it's essential. Planners must rethink how cities handle flooding, extreme heat, and shifting precipitation patterns. Just as Ireland's green landscape is sustained by the North Atlantic Current, Canada's climate patterns are similarly shaped by oceanic systems that are now being disrupted by rising global temperatures.

Canada's warming trajectory won't reverse itself; without aggressive emission reductions, these changes will continue intensifying across every region of the country. Climate change increasing fire risk means more devastating consequences for ecosystems, wildlife, and human populations are expected as temperatures continue to rise.

Scientists warn that many warming effects described in Canada's Changing Climate Report are effectively irreversible, underscoring the urgent need for immediate and sustained action at every level of government and society. Human influence has been assessed as the primary driver of these changes, surpassing natural causes in its contribution to the accelerating temperature increases observed across the country.

Canada Has Warmed 1.7°C Since Records Began in 1948

Since Canada began tracking national temperature records in 1948, its mean annual temperature has risen 1.7°C—a trend that has only accelerated, reaching 2.4°C by 2024. You'll find increases of at least 1°C observed almost everywhere across the country, though warming hasn't been uniform.

Urban heat effects have intensified these shifts in densely populated areas, while agricultural impacts have grown increasingly significant as seasonal patterns shift unpredictably. The likely range for the 1948–2016 period sits between 1.1°C and 2.3°C, confirming that Canada's warming trajectory remains consistent and measurable.

Seven of the ten warmest years on record occurred within the last two decades, and 2024 tied 2010 as the warmest year ever recorded, sitting 3.1°C above the 1961–1990 reference period. Annual averages have remained above the reference value every single year since 1997, underscoring the sustained and uninterrupted nature of Canada's long-term warming trend. Scientists predict that almost all of Canada will continue to warm over the next 80 years, with even reduced emissions scenarios projecting summer temperatures rising by 1.5°C to 2.5°C by mid-century.

What Canada's Arctic Measurements Revealed in 2019

Canada's warming temperatures tell only part of the Arctic story—beneath the ice-covered ocean, a decade of scientific fieldwork was quietly reshaping how the country understands its own geography.

In May 2019, Canada submitted a 2,100-page continental shelf report to the UN, backed by seafloor geology data from 15 survey missions. Here's what that effort revealed:

1. 1.2 million km² of Arctic seafloor identified as Canada's natural landmass extension
2. Nearly 1 tonne of rock samples dredged from depths reaching 2,500 metres
3. Fossilized plant material confirming ancient islands existed millions of years ago
4. Icebreaker logistics required two vessels operating simultaneously through perennial ice

You're looking at findings built on joint missions with Denmark, the US, and Sweden across ten years of harsh conditions. The delegation that filed the submission included Natural Resources Canada, Global Affairs Canada, and Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada, bringing together geologists and geophysicists to present authoritative geoscientific evidence. Following the submission, responses were received from the United States, Denmark, and Russia, with the Russian Federation's communication arriving on 3 December 2019.

Arctic Ice, Permafrost, and Snow Are Melting Fast

The Arctic's transformation in 2019 went far beyond Canada's seafloor—the region's ice, snow, and permafrost were disappearing at a pace that alarmed scientists worldwide. Arctic sea ice volume hit its lowest July average on record, roughly half of the 1979–2018 mean. By August 5, total extent dropped below 6 million square kilometers, a threshold unthinkable before 1999.

Greenland shattered ice-loss records, with 95 percent of its surface melting—far above the 64 percent historical average. Permafrost thaw accelerated as record heat waves struck Alaska, Scandinavia, and Greenland, driving massive glacial runoff into the sea. Disrupted snowpack timing pushed melt seasons weeks earlier than normal.

You're witnessing a system unraveling faster than scientists previously projected, with consequences extending well beyond the Arctic itself. Arctic sea ice maximum extent in 2019 reached 14.78 million square kilometers, effectively tying with 2007 as seventh lowest in the 40-year satellite record. July 2019 was reported by the UN as the hottest month on record, approximately 1.2°C above pre-industrial averages, underscoring the relentless heat driving these accelerating losses.

How Canada's Forests, Rivers, and Wildlife Are Already Changing

What's happening in Canada's Arctic is just the beginning—those same forces reshaping permafrost and glaciers are now tearing through the country's forests, rivers, and wildlife at an equally alarming pace.

Forest migration is pushing boreal zones northward while southern edges collapse. Wildlife corridors are fracturing under 1.5 million km of logging roads. Here's what you need to know:

1. Wildfires will burn 2–4 times more land annually by 2100
2. Spruce budworm and mountain pine beetle outbreaks are accelerating die-offs
3. Woodland caribou face extinction as critical habitats shrink
4. Salmon, black bears, and snowshoe hares are losing refuge to droughts and floods

Canada's forests support billions of migratory birds and regulate water systems you depend on—and both are now under severe threat. Canada holds 24% of the world's boreal forests, making the accelerating loss of these ecosystems a global emergency, not just a national one. Warmer winters are enabling increased pest survival, allowing destructive insects like bark beetles to persist and expand their range in ways that were once naturally checked by cold seasons.

The Canadian Scientists Who Shaped These Findings

Behind Canada's Changing Climate Report are scientists whose coordination, fieldwork, and expertise turned raw data into a nationally significant document.

Elizabeth Bush and Diana S. Lemmen led editorial work, coordinating over 100 experts across Canada to synthesize climate observations and projections.

Chris Derksen advanced findings on snow, ice, and permafrost, integrating national data with IPCC research on ocean and cryosphere changes.

Katherine Hayhoe, affiliated with both the University of Toronto and Texas Tech, brought science communication strengths and over 120 peer-reviewed publications to climate policy discussions.

Together, these scientists built a report grounded in federal research programs, attribution science, and policy-relevant scenarios.

Their work also acknowledged Indigenous knowledge as part of understanding how Canada's climate has shifted and where it's headed. Recent attribution research has found that heat events across regions like Alberta and Kivalliq were much more likely due to human influence.

The IPCC has released multiple assessment reports since 1990, each concluding with greater confidence that human influence on global climate is measurable and accelerating.

What the 2019 Report Says Canada Must Do to Limit Future Warming

Canada's 2019 climate report doesn't just document warming—it outlines what the country must do to slow it. To align with 1.5°C pathways, you'll need bold, immediate action across every sector.

The report identifies four critical priorities:

1. Strengthen carbon pricing beyond current levels to close the emissions gap
2. Finalize methane regulations and implement an oil and gas emissions cap by 2025
3. Eliminate inefficient fossil fuel subsidies and stop approving new fossil fuel projects
4. Pursue accelerated electrification while ensuring a just shift away from coal exports by 2025

Canada's 2030 target of 523 megatonnes still falls far short of the required 327 Mt. Without full policy implementation at all government levels, closing that gap becomes nearly impossible. Canada's energy sector alone accounted for 583 megatonnes, representing 81% of national greenhouse gas emissions. In 2022, a supplement to the 2019 report was published to align its national conclusions with the findings of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.